A survey of key economic forecasters shows the nearly two-year-old U.S. recession is likely over, based on recent growth trends. The survey data, released by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), predicted real GDP growth expanding at an annual pace of 2.9% over the second half of this year. "The great recession is over," NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said. "The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."
The NABE survey, conducted in September, predicts an economic rebound of 2.6% in 2010. Much of the anticipated turnaround is drawn from an expected rebuilding of business inventories, following a lengthy period of reduction of unsold goods. While certain data is positive, respondents still don't expect a rapid economic recovery, largely because of high unemployment figures.
Additionally, analysts expect the U.S. dollar to weaken further this year and into 2010, but did not see this trend as an obstacle to rising demand for imports. The survey also found economists do not think inflation will be a barrier to growth, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep interest rates low. "The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation," said Reaser.
Despite current and anticipated future growth, the recession label will not likely be lifted soon. The National Bureau of Economic Research, which is viewed as the defining voice in officially dating periods of economic stress or expansion, typically takes several months to make determinations. Beginning in December 2007, the current recession is the longest of its kind since the Great Depression.
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